NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Texas is back? Alabama is done? College football overreactions for Week 2

With college football teams having played only two games,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center or three in a few cases, the 2023 season is still in its earliest of stages. But that never stops observers – amateurs and professionals alike – from attempting to draw grand conclusions from what little we’ve seen thus far.

To be sure, some inferences will ultimately be borne out over the length of the campaign. But some are true overreactions, which can neither be proven or debunked with the scant information we have to date.

Here are the top five overreactions from Week 2, starting with a couple of possibly hasty declarations from Saturday’s splashiest result.

Texas is …

Back home after playing in Tuscaloosa.

Look, we get it. Texas was competing for and winning championships in the not-too-distant past, so it’s only natural that the program’s ardent supporters will amplify any inclination that those glory days are on the verge of returning. Saturday’s performance at Alabama might indeed have been the strongest indicator yet that the Longhorns are contenders again.

But we still need to see this administration negotiate a full season without encountering the strange uneven performances that have derailed so many promising starts. Just last year the ‘Horns nearly took down the Tide again but then managed just a 6-3 mark in the Big 12. Does Texas have the most talent in the league this year? Almost certainly. But consistency is the one attribute we still need to see before we can say the ‘Horns are really and truly back.

MISERY INDEX: Loss to Texas exposes issues at Alabama

HIGHS AND LOWS: Winners and losers from Week 2

Alabama is done

The flip side of the outcome in Tuscaloosa, of course, is the ebbing of the Tide as it were. While ‘Bama had a few good moments, briefly grabbing the lead in the second half, they were overall outplayed on both sides of the ball, an almost unheard of state of affairs under Nick Saban’s watch.

But while the Crimson Tide hardly looked the part of a playoff team, they could absolutely still win the SEC West. There will naturally be challengers, but the Tide might nevertheless be favored against the rest of the division despite this early defeat. LSU managed to unseat them last year, but the Tigers clearly have flaws as well. Ole Miss was in a dog fight with Tulane, which the Rebels might very well have lost had the Green Wave’s starting quarterback been available. Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State are all 2-0 but have hardly looked dominant. Alabama would be an underdog against Georgia in a hypothetical matchup in the SEC title game, but a lot can change between now and early December. In short, nobody should be dancing on the Crimson Tide’s grave just yet.

The Pac-12 is the best conference in the history of everything

Until an improved Arizona squad came up short in overtime at Mississippi State on Saturday, the Pac-12 was off to a 17-0 start. Those results include numerous wins against members of other power-five conferences. Washington State joined the party by upending then-No. 19 Wisconsin. That list doesn’t include UCLA’s 35-10 pounding of annual Mountain West contender San Diego State in a true road game, but it was just as impressive. As a result, the league finds itself with seven teams ranked in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll, and an eighth, Washington State, just outside the Top 25.

Suffice it to say this last ride for the conference as we know it is going to be a wild ride. Whether that translates into finally cracking the four-team playoff field – also in its final year – remains to be seen, but we’ll enjoy the show while we can.

The U is …

Back in the Top 25 at least. Miami fans have been waiting even longer than followers of Texas for a return to championship contention. Saturday’s win against Texas A&M was aesthetically pleasing to the faithful, with big plays and a decisive momentum swing just before halftime. It was in essence the kind of game good teams know how to win.

Ultimately, though, the result might say more about the Aggies than the Hurricanes. A&M’s seemingly annual bout with mediocrity since Jimbo Fisher’s arrival has been well documented. It was a positive step for Miami to be sure – the ‘Canes lost to the Aggies a year ago after all. They don’t figure to be severely tested in their next three outings, but their Oct. 14 trip to North Carolina kicks off a difficult second half of the slate that also includes a November showdown with Florida State, a program that also has a solid claim to being 'back.'

Those new ACC additions will ruin football in the league

The Pac-12’s strong start didn’t extend to the league’s Bay Area castaways, as Stanford was predictably rolled by now-fifth-ranked Southern California and Cal couldn’t get its offense going in a 14-10 late-night loss to visiting Auburn. It was also a rough day for SMU, which hung around with Oklahoma for a time but was eventually smothered 28-11. This led to some tongue-in-cheek – we think – commentary around the internet that those three newest ACC invitees will damage the league’s future football product, and just as its members are making headway against the SEC.

Of course one can’t really make such pronouncements, serious or not, based on one weekend. Ultimately, though, those programs might not bring much to the table as far as gridiron prowess is concerned. The Golden Bears and Cardinal haven’t exactly moved the needle in football of late. There’s no questioning SMU’s commitment, but it’s hard to buy winning football – just ask Texas A&M.